History is replete with examples of regimes and governments being overthrown due to inflation, especially food inflation. From the French Revolution—where the popular phrase “let them eat cake” originated, though its authenticity is still debated—to the Russian Revolution and in recent times the Arab Spring, which was sparked by rising food prices, particularly bread, a staple in the Arab world, every government that values stability strives to make food accessible to its citizens. Unlike other basic human needs, there is no substitute for food.
According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s food inflation rate is 40.87%. Although some have questioned the data and methodology used to calculate it, even if we accept the NBS figure, that level of food inflation is still unacceptable. Another troubling statistic shows that Nigerians are spending more than 50% of their income on food.
The current inflation crisis is just one of many cycles Nigerians have had to endure. Successive regimes and administrations have failed to resolve this issue. There is a stereotype that Nigerians have a high tolerance for hardship or, more harshly, that “Nigerians are docile.” I do not share this view. Recent events, such as the EndSARS protests and the ongoing protests have shown that every human has a breaking point.
President Bola Tinubu undoubtedly inherited a struggling economy, but he cannot claim ignorance of the challenges that lay ahead of him. In his own words, “Don’t pity me; I will live up to expectations.” Since taking office, he has not lived up to his word. All Major contenders in the 2023 presidential election, along with their supporters and experts agree that the petroleum subsidy and the multiple exchange rate system were unsustainable and needed to be addressed.
There is an ongoing debate about the timing of the scrapping of the petroleum subsidy and multiple forex exchange rates. But regardless of where one stands, it is clear that the president and the Nigerian political class have mishandled the fallout from these changes. On the policy front, this government has been ineffective.
If we are to believe Tinubu’s supporters claim he has an eye for the best brain and that he will assemble the best team. It is puzzling how these supposed best brains could not anticipate the consequences of removing the petroleum subsidy and unifying the foreign exchange rate. The best they could come up with was hasty measures like distributing rice and providing loans and grants to businesses—these programs have not alleviated Nigerians’ suffering.
The rice distribution program, in particular, is problematic; much of the rice ends up sitting in politicians’ warehouses until it is distributed as festival hampers to people who are mostly party faithfuls. There are even claims that some of this rice is being rebagged and sold. The bulk purchase of rice by the federal government is also contributing to the food inflation problem. As farmers prefer to sell in bulk to the government rather than to wholesalers and retailers.
Additionally, this administration, like its predecessors, suffers from a lack of coordination and is plagued by deadwood ministers whose appointments are political rewards.
How can the government convince citizens to endure economic hardships in the name of austerity measures, while running an oversized government with numerous special assistants and senior special assistants, lawmakers receiving new cars, and billions of naira wasted on the vice presidential residence and other frivolities? While some argue that reducing these expenditures would not significantly impact the budget deficit, they overlook the issue of perception. People are sentimental and would appreciate seeing politicians make sacrifices for the country, as they are asking citizens to do. As the saying goes, they should “lead by example.”
I am skeptical about the effectiveness of protests, especially in a country as divided as Nigeria. History has shown little to convince me otherwise. However, I would not discourage those who believe in the efficacy of protests from participating. People are truly suffering, and the president still has time to redeem himself, as he is only in the early days of his second year in office.
